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Our power in Copenhagen – from Josh

Submitted by Ellen on December 16, 2009 – 8:48 pmNo Comment

Joseph Nye coined the phrase ‘soft power’ to describe influence that didn’t stem from the usual ‘hard’ sources of power – military or economic might, geopolitical advantage – but from factors like cultural domination, personal popularity or the power of an idea.

Both are can be found here in ample supply: from the domination of the developing country bloc by China and India, to the elephant in the room that is the United States’ refusal to sign on to the Kyoto Protocol that has necessitated a whole track of negotiations to get them on board in some other way, these talks are also the expression of other rivalries and divisions that have very little to do with climate change.

That said, these talks have everything to do with climate change – they’re supposed to stop them!

So the power exercised here is pretty important. The government representatives clearly hold most of the power – this is hardly news – but power also arises in new and surprising ways, which is why it’s worthwhile for us youth delegates to be here.

First though, the governments. On last Wednesday morning we met with Louise Hand (Aussie Ambassador for Climate Change) for half an hour to let her know what we’re doing and hear her views on the talks so far.

It’s great that she is so keen to engage with young people – and she is a thoroughly professional and personable negotiator; I’ve grown to like her a great deal over the year – but she has been handed a set of policies that are difficult to justify.

When asked why Australia doesn’t aim for global pollution to be reduced to a level that might actually avoid dangerous climate change, she has to respond with an explanation of why a genuine solution to the problem is politically unlikely in Saudi Arabia and the United States.

When asked if Australia is willing to accept the refugees who will watch their Pacific island homes slowly drown in the event that the world doesn’t act fast enough – if the world acts along the lines Australia proposes, in fact – she can’t answer with a yes or a no.

It makes sense for a negotiator to hold some cards close – but the reality is, if you want to reference the science and economics of climate change, all of which points towards genuine action now, you can’t then propose the kind of policies being pushed by our negotiators here.

Hence the occasional non-answers in our conversations with Ambassador Hand. I really do like Louise – and as a genuinely decent person, her grasp of the soft power of likeability grants Australia more sway here than its economic or military situation might suggest to a classical political analyst.

It’s not just the Ambassadors that hold the influence here, though.

Their mandates stem entirely from the instructions sent daily from Canberra, Beijing, Washington, D.C. – so anything that changes the political debate changes them.

Hence our power here (such as it is).

Over the last week, one of the biggest media stories online in Australia has been the Westpac ad comparing interest rate rises to the price of banana smoothies in the wake of Cyclone Larry.

Five hours of intense editing and a quick voiceover change later, we released a video from right here in Copenhagen that called out Tony Abbott’s inaccurate statements on climate change.

A day later, it was across the entire Fairfax Online network, top story on The Age Video News site, and the highest-rated Twitter story from SBS of the day.

It’s been seen by thousands of voters, Minister Penny Wong, and – by now – the Liberal policymakers on climate issues.

A little push in the right direction has a big effect here, especially on the little details that make up a good agreement – the kind of thing that doesn’t capture the public consciousness without a good dose of humour, but would make a massive difference to the effectiveness of the Copenhagen agreement.

So here we are, a little soft power and a massive viral media story later.

The negotiating texts still include all the ingredients that are vital to a good deal here – but they also have all the parts of an ineffective and backward treaty. Either could result from these talks.

Keep an eye on our negotiating team, through the media and this little blog – because the soft power of the voter is the biggest power of all.

You can find the AYCC’s spoof of the Westpac banana smoothie video here.

It was the highest rating video on Fairfax online – bigger than Tiger Woods! :)

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